As we approach the start of the Warsaw conference it is time to read the teas on what to expect. I had to wait a day or two later than I wanted to write this because so much of the Foreign minister attendee list was still up in the air when that was needed to gauge the initial tone for the whole conference.
In short, the key players are going to be the angry losers of US coalition crowd to Balkanize Syria. Of the Arab countries we have all the Iran hater first line players, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait. Qatar is sitting out after admitting it had had enough of the $160 billion spent to tear Syria apart.
Jordan of course will be there as it is virtually a US base, while Moroco and Oman will be along for the ride to see what presents might be available for signing onto manifesto and then do nothing after that. The Yemen rump government backed by the Saudis will be there to blame all the Yemen deaths and suffering on the Houthis. Tunisia and Egypt are still pending with deputy ministers considerations.
The US and Poland are cohosts, evidence of the ongoing seduction of Poland away from the EU into the US orbit while still having free trade with the EU. Poland wants a permanent US base and might get it just for hosting the conference. The US gets a “two fer” with Poland as it hates Russia, too. As for the EU we have Britain’s FM Jeremy Hunt coming, Germany’s FM Heiko Mass was a no, while France is still up in the air.
So there we have the big news. Trump’s flanking move on trying to undercut the EU Special Purpose Vehicle roll out by creating a new multinational Anti-Iran coalition with Poland as the tip of Trump’s spear, is basically going to be the old “let’s destroy Syria” gang focusing on new targets.
The EU has saved its honor by holding firm against the US push to impose a veto on its foreign policy and trade. It would have looked like a fool to have the Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX) rollout followed by joining Trump’s new Iran fight club.