What just happened in Sudan was likely a military coup despite the “official” explanation being that President Bashir simply stepped down, and while this might appear on the surface to be a huge development, its immediate consequences will probably be quite limited even though certain “dark scenarios” still can’t be ruled out.
The news just broke that Sudanese President Bashir was deposed of in a military coup, though the “official” explanation is that he simply stepped down in response to increasingly violent protests against his thirty-year-long rule. This is an important distinction to make since the African Union and the US would be compelled to condemn the latest developments and possibly suspend their cooperation with the country if the armed forces admitted that they seized power, though it’s “conventional knowledge” that the long-serving leader probably didn’t resign out of his own free will. In any case, this latest non-electoral regime change proves that the decade-long “African Spring” is alive and well, having now succeeded in Sudan immediately after Algeria despite an earlier attempt having failed in Gabon, with three cases therefore being seen since the beginning of 2019 alone. This latest event will certainly have geopolitical consequences that deserve to be discussed, though before doing so, the reader should familiarize themselves with the author’s previous pieces on this issue for context’s sake:
- “Sudan Might Be The Next Geopolitical Victim Of The New Cold War”
- “Sudan’s State Of Emergency Might Herald A ‘Phased Leadership Transition’”
- “Sudan’s ‘Deep State’ Divisions Could Spell The End Of President Bashir’s Rule”
As a brief review, while it’s indeed possible that the incipient Color Revolution that broke out in the country in late-2018 could be exploited by outside forces for geopolitical ends such as catalyzing the diverse state’s further “Balkanization”, the unrest itself appeared to be a mostly spontaneous reaction by a desperate population already fed up with their deteriorating socio-economic conditions following a surprise increase in the price of bread and fuel, albeit one that domestic political activists probably prepared in advance to organize in response to a “trigger” event such as that one.