New York, London, and the 20% question


16-08-20 04:55:00,

Important new serological studies on the global hotspots New York City and England have been added to the international Covid IFR overview (section 1.B).

Unsurprisingly, they found rather high values. Two studies on NYC report values between 0.7% and 1.1% based on confirmed cases and up to 1.45% including probable cases. One study on England reports an IFR in the general population of 0.9% and of 1.43% including care homes.

(Both New York and England moved patients into care homes. England reported 20,000 “Covid-related” deaths in care homes, New York (State) between 6500 and 13,000.)

As everywhere, mortality mostly affected the 70+ age group, and in the case of NYC, decreased by about 50% during the epidemic (as in Lombardy). IFRs below 45 years were

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