Published: September 3, 2019
Why does covid-19 appear to be a somewhat strange pandemic? It is because of the covid-19 mortality profile, which is almost identical to natural mortality.
To better understand this crucial point, we first look at two other well-known pandemics: the 2009 swine flu “fake pandemic” and the notorious 1918 “Spanish flu” pandemic.
The 2009 swine flu was a “fake pandemic” because in reality it was a rather mild flu that caused few deaths globally. It was labeled a “pandemic” in June 2009 only because the WHO had removed the requirement of “enormous numbers of death and illness” one month before. The pandemic warning then triggered a multi-billion dollar sale of rather useless and partially dangerous vaccines.
The 2009 swine flu strain was mild because it was somewhat similar to a flu virus strain that had circulated prior to the 1957 Asian flu pandemic. This meant that most people over 60 years – the main risk group – had already developed immunity against the new virus. And the virus simply wasn’t dangerous enough to seriously threaten many people younger than 60 years.
The 1918 “Spanish flu” virus, on the other hand, was a very dangerous virus that had a very different mortality profile. In addition to old people, it also killed babies and young children plus young adults between 20 and 45 years at very high rates (see chart at the bottom).
In contrast, the mortality profile of the covid-19 coronavirus is essentially zero for children and young adults and near zero below 50, before it begins to rise slowly and then very steeply above 70 and especially above 80, reaching extreme levels in nursing homes.
Thus the covid-19 mortality profile is almost identical to natural mortality. This doesn’t mean that covid-19 doesn’t increase someone’s risk of death – it absolutely does – but this increase is proportional to the pre-existing risk of death of the respective age and risk group.
The characteristics of covid-19 may have to do with the cardiovascular and immunological properties of the virus and they explain the high death rate in nursing homes (up to 70% of deaths), in people above 70 years (about 90%), and in Western countries in general.