1) Gobal covid “cases” and deaths vs. all-cause deaths
Chart number one shows global covid deaths by September in blue (about 1 million) versus global all-cause deaths in purple (about 40 million). The chart also shows the cumulative number of global covid “cases” (i.e. positive PCR tests) – the so-called “casedemic” on top of the pandemic.
Global covid deaths and “cases” vs. global all-cause deaths (Data: OWD)2) Covid mortality vs. flu mortality
Chart number two compares mortality by age of covid and seasonal influenza (based on US CDC data). Below 50 years, influenza is generally deadlier than covid; above 50 years, covid is quickly getting deadlier than seasonal influenza (for which vaccines are available).
Overall, in Western countries a severe seasonal to medium pandemic influenza remains the best lethality and mortality comparison to covid. In non-Western countries, including Japan and most of Africa, covid mortality appears to be comparable to seasonal influenza.
Flu vs. Covid mortality by age (CC/CDC)3) The role of nursing homes
Chart number three compares covid lethality (IFR) between the entire population (including nursing homes) and the non-nursing home population in Belgium (the hardest hit country in Europe; nevertheless, Belgian peak mortality is comparable to flu waves in the 1950s/60s.)
In most Western countries, nursing homes account for about 40% (Germany) to 80% (Canada and some US states) of all covid deaths, but encompass only about 0.6% of the population; their IFR (about 30%) is about 100 times higher than for the general population (about 0.3%).
When calculating and communicating IFRs, it is therefore crucial to distinguish between the nursing home and the non-nursing home population in order to provide meaningful values. Nursing homes require not a general lockdown, but a targeted, and humane, protection.
Belgium: IFRs in entire population vs. » Lees verder