With everybody is focused on the US election drama, there are important developments in the war over the NK. I will summarize them here:
- While both the original Russian and then subsequent US ceasefires failed minutes after they were proclaimed, there are signs that both the Armenians and the Azeris are getting exhausted and want to talk.
- So far, the Azeris were mostly prevailing, but at great costs. Also, their drones were used with great effectiveness, but now most of them have eventually been shot down. Also, the winter is coming fast, making any kind of warfare close to impossible, especially in the mountains.
- It appears that today the Azeris shot down a Russian Mi-24 by mistake, but right over the border in Armenian airspace. Putin will not retaliate since he knows that this is a mistake and since he does not let such minor, if tragic, incidents affect him. But Aliev also knows that now things are getting really dangerous so he already apologized, offered compensation, promised a criminal investigation which will punish all those who are responsible. Aliev “gets” Russia and he also “gets” Putin. Smart man!
- The Armenians probably have realized two things: a) the US cannot help them b) their public image in Russia is pretty bad. On this page: https://vz.ru/vote/result/1820/, Vzgliad, a popular and moderately patriotic website asked this question in a survey: “Which of the parties to the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh is morally right in your eyes?“. The result? Armenia 33.06 and Azerbaijan 48.12. The arrogant and openly hostile attitude of the Armenians since 2018 has hurt them tremendously and they might be coming back to their senses. If Pashinian is removed, he did lose this war, after all, that would help a lot.
- There are now signs that Russia and Turkey will decide the outcome of this war. Considering how the two countries cooperated in Syria, this will be both very difficult to achieve, but all that matters is the end result.
- There are also rumors that Russia will send peacekeepers into Nagorno-Karabach. If confirmed, they will be heavily armed peacekeepers with full support from the Russian armed forces in Armenia and even Russia.
- Pashinian has already made public a declaration in which he says that he has agreed to the terms offered by Russia and Azerbaijan and that the war is “over”
We will see if this ceasefire will hold any more than the previous ones did,