Some Covid Questions

some-covid-questions

05-04-21 10:10:00,

Published: April 5, 2020

Some covid-related reader questions and comments SPR has received in recent weeks that may be of interest to a broader audience.

  1. “Did Sweden have an antibody seroprevalence of 40% by the end of December?” Sweden had a seroprevalence of about 5% by the end of April and about 15% by the end of December (based on comparative mortality data). The values in Stockholm were higher and the national values in young people may also have been higher, but the 40% value was based on non-representative blood donor data.
  2. “Was excess mortality in Sweden in 2020 one of the lowest in Europe?” Reports by the Oxford CEBM and by Reuters/Eurostat appeared to show this, but they were based on the 2015-2019 average mortality, which does not take into account the strongly decreasing mortality trend in Sweden (the CEBM acknowledges this issue). If calculated correctly, Swedish excess mortality in 2020 was close to the European average, as one would expect.
  3. “Professor Ioannidis showed the covid IFR is only 0.15%.” The Ioannidis value is the lower bound of the global average IFR. This value is not applicable to Western countries, not even if nursing homes are excluded (= IFR 0.3% to 0.6% in most Western countries).
  4. “Germany had a very low excess mortality in 2020 (

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