A no-nonsense analysis of recent political and military developments in the Ukraine war.
Overview: Energy situation / Military and political situation / Crimea bridge attack / War crimes and propaganda / Outlook
In a previous analysis, it was shown that, contrary to widespread media reports, the decision to decouple Europe from Russian energy supplies was an entirely Western geostrategic decision, not a Russian decision or Russian retaliation: while Russia would still like to export oil and gas and receive foreign exchange revenues, NATO countries and especially the US would like to reduce Russian export revenues and Russian economic influence in Europe.
Thus, the Jamal pipeline was closed in May by Poland, the Soyuz pipeline was closed in May by Ukraine, the Nord Stream II pipeline remained closed due to US pressure, and the Nord Stream I pipeline was closed in September by Russia due to Western sanctions that prevented the repair and return of several gas turbines (see the map of pipelines below).
By September, only the Brotherhood pipeline to Ukraine and Western Europe and the TurkStream pipeline to Southeast and Central Europe remained operational, though some countries refused payment in Euro to Gazprom Bank due to EU sanctions against Russian financial institutions.