Rabobank: Everyone Thinks They Know What’s Going On When They Actually Don’t

rabobank:-everyone-thinks-they-know-what’s-going-on-when-they-actually-don’t

30-07-20 01:53:00,

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Try Not To Be Rash(omon)

The 1950 movie ‘Rashomon’ from director Akira Kurosawa a classic which infamously telling the story of a terrible crime from four different points of view. The “Rashomon effect” is a related term describing the notorious unreliability of eyewitnesses, where an event is given contradictory interpretations or descriptions by the individuals involved. A bit like markets: Everyone thinks they know what’s going on when they actually don’t.

With the full disclaimer that I don’t either, let’s try to thread together a narrative, however. In doing so I personally find an alternative cinematic technique —split screen, as used in The Thomas Crown Affair (1968)— works very well to try to tie simultaneous narratives unfolding in different places which all build to a unified conclusion.

On one screen we have the Fed, which is now lower-er forever-er, with no real change yesterday other than an extension of its swap lines and the FIMA repo facility through to March 2021, alongside a verbal reiteration that they are not even thinking about thinking about raising rates. With 5-year US yields hitting a new low of just below 0.25%, who needs yield curve control? Nobody is thinking about the Fed thinking about thinking about raising rates until at least 2026. And with 10-year yields at 0.57%, there isn’t more than one hike expected in the next decade.

On a second, the US Congress seems incapable of finding an adequate fiscal response to keep the economy afloat, despite the Fed’s pleas. Another few days, perhaps(?) Perhaps not. US tech giants were given a mixed reception, meanwhile. Some came to praise and some came to bury. Few came to seriously call for regulation or breaking them up

On a third, China is flexing its muscles. In Hong Kong, student activists were arrested last night in line with the new national security law, which will almost certainly trigger Western pushback. The Global Times also ran an extraordinary attack on Australia that went beyond the usual threat of massive economic consequences of ‘wrong actions’ to actually state it would “likely face unbearable consequences” if there were a US-China clash in which it chose the US side, as US allies in the Indo-Pacific region would then all be targets for the PLA.

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Coronavirus: Why Everyone Was Wrong. It is Not a “New Virus”. “The Fairy Tale of No Immunity” – Global Research

coronavirus:-why-everyone-was-wrong-it-is-not-a-“new-virus”.-“the-fairy-tale-of-no-immunity”-–-global-research

09-07-20 03:44:00,

The original article was published in the Swiss magazine Weltwoche (World Week) on June 10th. The author, Beda M Stadler is the former director of the Institute for Immunology at the University of Bern, a biologist and professor emeritus. Stadler is an important medical professional in Switzerland, he also likes to use provoking language, which should not deter you from the extremely important points he makes.

This article is about Switzerland and it does not suggest that the situation is exactly the same globally.

I am advocating for local measures according to locale situations. And I advocate for looking at real data rather than abstract models. I also suggest to read to the end, because Stadler makes crucial points about testing for Sars-CoV-2.

Back to Reason, Medium, June 2, 2020

***

This is not an accusation, but a ruthless taking stock [of the current situation]. I could slap myself, because I looked at Sars-CoV2- way too long with panic. I am also somewhat annoyed with many of my immunology colleagues who so far have left the discussion about Covid-19 to virologists and epidemiologists. I feel it is time to criticise some of the main and completely wrong public statements about this virus.

Firstly, it was wrong to claim that this virus was novel.

Secondly, It was even more wrong to claim that the population would not already have some immunity against this virus.

Thirdly, it was the crowning of stupidity to claim that someone could have Covid-19 without any symptoms at all or even to pass the disease along without showing any symptoms whatsoever.

But let’s look at this one by one.

1. A new virus?

At the end of 2019 a coronavirus, which was considered novel, was detected in China. When the gene sequence, i.e. the blueprint of this virus, was identified and was given a similar name to the 2002 identified Sars, i.e. Sars-CoV-2, we should have already asked ourselves then how far [this virus] is related to other coronaviri, which can make human beings sick. But no, instead we discussed from which animal as part of a Chinese menu the virus might have sprung.

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EVERYONE is on the list: Snowden says no ‘innocents’ in mass surveillance world

everyone-is-on-the-list:-snowden-says-no-‘innocents’-in-mass-surveillance-world

18-09-19 08:42:00,

Asked if buying his memoir would get one on a spy list, NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden chillingly replied that everyone in the world is on the “list” and there are no innocents in the age of mass surveillance.

Responding to a reader who joked that buying Snowden’s book ‘Permanent Record’ might have put him on a list of people to be spied on, the exiled former intelligence contractor said in all seriousness that everyone is being spied on regardless.

“Systems of mass surveillance strive to record all people, in all places, at all times. The question is no longer ‘Am I on the list?’ it is ‘What’s my rank on the list?’,” Snowden tweeted on Wednesday.

Today, everyone is on the list, no matter how innocent. Systems of mass surveillance strive to record all people, in all places, at all times. The question is no longer “Am I on the list?,” it is “What’s my rank on the list?” #PermanentRecordhttps://t.co/K7pkJ2VGf5

— Edward Snowden (@Snowden) September 18, 2019

The former NSA and CIA contractor became a household name in 2013, when he revealed the extent of surveillance by the ‘Five Eyes’ network of US and its allies. He fled to Hong Kong ahead of being charged with espionage and eventually found asylum in Russia.

The US government reacted to the publication of his memoir by filing a civil lawsuit seeking to confiscate all proceeds from it, on grounds that it violates his nondisclosure agreement with the NSA and the CIA. This only helped the book become an instant best-seller.

Also on rt.com
US sues Snowden for violating ‘CIA & NSA non-disclosure pact’ with his new book, but it also wants the proceeds

Snowden has repeatedly made the case that everyone is being spied on regardless of whether they were actually engaged in any wrongdoing.

“Arguing that you don’t care about the right to privacy because you have nothing to hide is no different than saying you don’t care about free speech because you have nothing to say,” he said during a discussion on Reddit in May 2015. 

Also on rt.com
US lawsuit against Snowden is a warning to other whistleblowers to keep their mouths shut,

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Everyone’s A Conspiracy Theorist, Whether They Know It Or Not

everyone’s-a-conspiracy-theorist,-whether-they-know-it-or-not

12-08-19 07:49:00,

Plutocratic propaganda outlet MSNBC has just run a spin segment on the breaking news that the medical examiner’s determination of the cause of Jeffrey Epstein’s death is “pending further information”.

“Our sources are still saying that it looks like suicide, and this is going to set conspiracy theorists abuzz I fear,” said NBC correspondent Ken Dilanian. “NBC News has been hearing all day long that there are no indications of foul play, and that this looks like a suicide and that he hung himself in his cell.”

Dilanian, who stumbled over the phrase “conspiracy theorists” in his haste to get it in the first soundbyte, is a known asset of the Central Intelligence Agency. This is not a conspiracy theory, this is a well-documented fact. A 2014 article in The Intercept titled “The CIA’s Mop-Up Man” reveals email exchanges obtained via Freedom of Information Act request between Dilanian and CIA public affairs officers which “show that Dilanian enjoyed a closely collaborative relationship with the agency, explicitly promising positive news coverage and sometimes sending the press office entire story drafts for review prior to publication.” There is no reason to give Dilanian the benefit of the doubt that this cozy relationship has ended, so anything he puts forward can safely be dismissed as CIA public relations.

When I mentioned Dilanian’s CIA ties on MSNBC’s Twitter video, MSNBC deleted their tweet and then re-shared it without mentioning Dilanian’s name. Here is a screenshot of the first tweet followed by an embedded link to their current one (which I’ve archived just in case):

FYI Ken Dilanian is a known CIA asset.https://t.co/9e7B7rstSz

— Caitlin Johnstone ⏳ (@caitoz) August 11, 2019

After autopsy, NYC chief medical examiner says office’s determination on the investigation into Jeffrey Epstein’s death is ‘”pending further information.”

Multiple people briefed on the investigation tell @NBCNews that suicide remains the presumed cause of death. pic.twitter.com/3Sg5MCB1Iw

— MSNBC (@MSNBC) August 12, 2019

Up until the news broke that Epstein’s autopsy has been unable to readily confirm suicide,

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‘Everyone else must take my place’: Assange in letter from British prison

‘everyone-else-must-take-my-place’:-assange-in-letter-from-british-prison

25-05-19 08:17:00,

In a handwritten letter from Belmarsh prison, WikiLeaks co-founder Julian Assange says he is being denied a chance to defend himself and that elements in the US that “hate truth, liberty and justice” want him extradited and dead.

The letter was sent to independent British journalist Gordon Dimmack. It was dated May 13 – ten days before the US announced 17 additional charges under the Espionage Act against the jailed whistleblower.

In light of the new indictment, Dimmack read out the letter in a YouTube video. A photo of the handwritten note was soon posted online as well.

“I have been isolated from all ability to prepare to defend myself: no laptop, no internet, ever, no computer, no library, so far, but even if I get access it will just be for a half an hour, with everyone else, once a week,” Assange wrote. “The other side? A superpower that has been preparing for 9 years, with hundreds of people and untold millions spent on the case.”

Assange was arrested on April 11, after Ecuador revoked his political asylum and UK police seized him from the Latin American country’s embassy in London. He was sentenced to 50 weeks behind bars for skipping bail, and sent to Belmarsh, a prison south of London once dubbed ‘British Guantanamo’ for being used to jail terrorism suspects.

I am defenseless.

“I am unbroken, albeit literally surrounded by murderers, but, the days where I could read and speak and organize to defend myself, my ideals, and my people are over until I am free! Everyone else must take my place,” Assange wrote in the letter.

Also on rt.com
WATCH: ‘British Gitmo’ jail where Julian Assange is being held

The WikiLeaks publisher had sought refuge in Ecuador in 2012, claiming – correctly, as it turned out – that trumped-up charges in Sweden would be used to get him extradited to the US. A secret indictment of Assange, only made public in March, charged him with violating the Espionage Act over the 2010 publication of secret US military and diplomatic documents.

“The US government, or rather,

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