Rickards: “Perfect Storm” Is Coming

rickards:-“perfect-storm”-is-coming

12-06-19 04:28:00,

Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

People often refer to the “perfect storm.” A perfect storm is generally understood as two or more events that are independent but converge to produce an outcome much worse than either event alone.

The term is an overused cliché, and as a writer I avoid clichés whenever possible. But though rare, perfect storms do exist. The most common example is the devastating 1991 storm popularized by the book and movie of the same name, although it was initially known as the “Halloween storm.”

In that case, three separate weather dynamics all converged in one place on one day to produce a perfect storm. The odds of all three coming together at once were less than one in 100,000. That’s less than once in 270 years. That’s a perfect storm.

Do metaphorical perfect storms happen in politics and capital markets?

The answer is yes, provided the conditions of the perfect storm definition are satisfied. The multiple events that make up the true perfect storm must be independent and rare and come to converge in an almost impossible way.

Unfortunately, a political and market perfect storm is now on the way and may strike as early as Halloween 2019, marking a new “Halloween storm.” Get ready.

Today I’ll be discussing the components making up this perfect storm, and how I see them all coming together at the same time.

In my 40-plus years in banking and capital markets, I have lived through a number of financial fiascos that arguably qualify as perfect storms. Here’s a partial list:

  • 1970: Penn Central bankruptcy, the largest in history at that time

  • 1973–74: Arab oil embargo

  • 1977–80: U.S. hyperinflation

  • 1982–85: Latin American debt crisis

  • 1987: One-day 22% stock market crash

  • 1988–92: Savings and loan (S&L) crisis

  • 1994: Mexican tequila crisis

  • 1997: Asian financial crisis

  • 1998: Russia/Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) crisis

  • 2000:Dot-com crash

  • 2007: Mortgage market collapse

  • 2008: Lehman Bros./AIG financial panic.

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Who is Going to Run a Perfect World?

who-is-going-to-run-a-perfect-world?

22-05-19 05:56:00,

By Jon Rappoport

Most of my readers now know that my blog has been taken down by WordPress for no stated reason.  We are working to restore the blog “by other means.” You’re reading this either because you’re already subscribed to my email list or someone forwarded this email to you. If you’re in the latter category, then the best way to get my daily articles is go to NoMoreFakeNews.com and sign up for the email list in the upper left corner.  You’ll get articles in your inbox.  Thank you for your support.

“Ah, yes.  Utopia.  You see perfection, i see mediocracy.  You see triumph, I see surface gloss and shiny objects and moths drawn to luminous signs and symbols.  You see order, I see walled-in compartments.  You see community, I see the abdication of the soul.” (From my Notes on Technocratic Utopia)

In early human societies, technology was primitive, and top-down control over the population was overt and menacing.

In modern times, technology develops apart from massive political power—or it seems to.

Large numbers of people who work with technology view it as a path to perfection of civilization.  Perfection equals order, organization, coordination, comfort, security, and so on.  Or as one technocrat put it to me, “Everyone and everything in its proper place.”

If you don’t examine what that means, if you just take it as a surface generalization, and if you dream technology can solve all problems, the future looks rosy.

You can even flesh out details of the future.  Buckminster Fuller did.  He proposed that technology had reached a point where every human on Earth could be guaranteed, from birth, at no charge, the essentials of life: food, clothing, shelter, education.

There are many versions of a technocratic utopia.  They all promise a collective triumph for the human species.

But is the fundamental premise true? Is modern technology developing apart from top-down control?  Unfortunately, the answer is no.  At the summit of the food chain, the people in charge see technology as a means of universal control.  They aren’t content to allow innovation with no firm hand on the reins of society.

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A “Perfect Coup” Is Unfolding In Algeria

a-8220perfect-coup8221-is-unfolding-in-algeria

29-03-19 09:41:00,

Authored by Cyril Widdershoven via Oilprice.com,

The ongoing unrest in one of North Africa’s largest oil and gas producers Algeria is reaching boiling point.

After weeks of protests from the opposition, aimed at blocking the possible re-election of long-time president Bouteflika, there still doesn’t seem to be a resolution within reach. Even after the sudden withdrawal by Bouteflika from new elections, demonstrations continued.

Opposition and some regime insiders still feel that the old guard is clinging to power. The Algerian army, however, has stepped into the fray, urging the removal of the current president. Algerian army chief of staff General Ahmed Gaid Salah suddenly stated that Abdelaziz Bouteflika should be deemed unfit to rule. The latter was greeted by support of opposition parties and European analysts. The end to the old guard and Bouteflika clan seems to be near. Officially, the Algerian army has been stepping in to support the “legitimate demands” of the hundreds of thousands of protesters flocking the streets lately. Optimism is growing and Western media is already suggesting the possibility of a new Arab Spring movement. The reality of Algeria’s political upheaval, however, is that it is less Arab Spring 2.0 and more Cairo 2.0, with the re-emergence of the army as the real power broker.

Since the Algerian Revolt against France, the North African country has been ruled by a bipartisan system based on a political party, coming from the Algerian independency groups, and the newly formed Algerian army. This system has endured a multitude of changes and crises, and got almost obliterated during the brief rule of the Islamists after their election victory in the 1990s. Soon after this Islamist victory, the Algerian army with support of the old guard, took over and reinstated their own rule. The current situation looks almost the same, with one big difference. Algerian military strategists seem to have been reading all reports and analysis pieces written during and after the Arab Spring developments in Egypt. Cairo’s long-time ruling elite, headed by president Husni Mubarak, had outlived its time. Democratic and religious opposition combined their forces and removed Mubarak from power. At the same time, the Egyptian army stayed in their barracks, not interfering at all, despite the fact that Mubarak’s rule was built with the support of the army.

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Children Make Perfect Propaganda Props

children-make-perfect-propaganda-props

25-03-19 08:31:00,

History sometimes resonates in odd sorts of ways…

“You can’t stop what’s coming. It ain’t all waiting on you. That’s vanity.”

What can you get for nearly $18 million? A 3,000 square foot house and easy access to the best vibrators in town!

Need to push through a propaganda campaign to utterly transform society?

Want people to not only accept but actively embrace their own impoverishment?

Well just get yourself some youthful true believers to do your propagandizing for you!

Source: The Strategic Culture Foundation

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Children Make Perfect Propaganda Props – #PropagandaWatch : The Corbett Report

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19-03-19 08:29:00,

The Corbett Report

Corbett

03/19/2019

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Need to push through a propaganda campaign to utterly transform society? Want people to not only accept but actively embrace their own impoverishment? Well just get yourself some youthful true believers to do your propagandizing for you!

SHOW NOTES
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Dianne Feinstein gets into testy exchange with schoolkids over the Green New Deal

Merkel Points To Russia For Sudden Interest Of European Youth In Climate Issues

UN Warning: Just 3 YEARS Left to Save the Earth!

Youth Strike For Globalist Propaganda

Emails reveal how children become pawns of climate alarmism

Positive Propaganda? – #PropagandaWatch

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Tagged with: climate changepropaganda

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Perfect Storm is Brewing in Georgia | New Eastern Outlook

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27-12-18 02:47:00,

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It takes little imagination to understand that a perfect storm must be brewing when a shift in US foreign policy and a contested presidential election in another country occur at the same time. Add to the mix a dispute over who will be accepted as the next ambassador to that country and you have a geopolitical “accident” waiting to happen.

John Bolton, the US National Security, or better said, “Insecurity Advisor” to Donald Trump visited Georgia in late October, having also made quick visits to Armenia and Azerbaijan. He admitted that the purpose of this visit was to understand the “very significant geographical role” the countries of the region have “in dealing with Iran, dealing with Russia and in dealing with Turkey.”

John Bolton’s language does not speak of diplomacy but of engagement, provocation and closing ranks. Diplomacy has never been his calling card. He is perhaps one of the most unsavory characters ever to serve in a diplomatic role, even in the history of the US, and his reputation so far precedes him that even Time Magazine has rumbled him.

The visit should be seen within the context of the recent Georgian presidential election runoff, which produced an outcome which was not the most conducive to US foreign policy, and also something of a shock as it potentially upsets the “greater scheme of things” concerning Iran, Russia and Turkey.

It also came in the midst of a quiet but public debate over who will be the next US Ambassador to Georgia, with the most likely candidate already having her own basket of dirty laundry. Foreign Policy, a US based magazine, has already published an article which claims that “Georgia will not accept the nomination of Bridget Brink, a career foreign service officer with extensive experience in Europe and two past tours in Georgia, because of her alleged predisposition toward former Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili” and her warmongering tendencies.

The Georgian Ministry of Foreign Affairs says that the above mentioned article in Foreign Policy, which states that the Georgian government itself has rejected Brink’s nomination, is “far from reality.”But the history of US Ambassadors to Georgia, previously outlined in this journal,

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“Perfect Storm” – The (Ominous) Problem With Global Liquidity

“Perfect Storm” – The (Ominous) Problem With Global Liquidity

20-10-18 05:47:00,

Authored by Tuomas Malinen via GnSEconomics.com,

Market liquidity is crucial for well-functioning capital markets. There has been a quite lot of talk about diminished market liquidity and the role of machines in it (see, e.g. Q-review 4/2017this and this). These are worrying developments.

However, while market liquidity is crucial for markets, global financial flows, i.e. liquidity, is also essential to the real economy and for global economic growth. The availability of credit on a global basis fuels investments and growth around the world.  Such financial flows fell by a massive 90 % during the 2008 crisis, which quickly translated into a global recession.  Investment and consumption collapsed almost everywhere, with the exception of China where a massive credit stimulus was enacted.

Since then, there has been an uneven recovery. Cross-border bank lending has never really recovered (see Q-review 1/2017), but the issuance of vast amounts of government and corporate debt has taken its place. This creates a serious risk for the global real economy if highly over-valued capital markets crash.

The metamorphosis of global liquidity

In its recent quarterly report, the Bank of International Settlements, or BIS, raises three crucial points for global liquidity:

  1. Global outside-US dollar denominated debt has risen to a record.

  2. The role of non-bank institutions on providing funding has increased.

  3. The composition of international credit has shifted from bank loans to debt securities.

Combined with the asset purchase programs of central banks (QE) these developments have far-reaching consequences for the global economy.

Currently, non-banking institutions and households outside the US hold over 11.5 trillion worth of dollar-denominated debt—a record. The “shadow banking” sector could conceivably hold the same amount. This means that all policies affecting global dollar liquidity, will have a large effect on the global economy.

The increased role of non-bank institutions in providing credit means that an increasing proportion of international finance comes from unregulated sources. Effectively, this means that these institutions, including money market funds, investments banks, etc., have unwittingly assumed even bigger risks in their lending practices than commercial banks.

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BIS Warns Of “Perfect Storm” For Global Economy

BIS Warns Of “Perfect Storm” For Global Economy

27-08-18 09:37:00,

To those hoping for a quick resolution to the US-China trade war, Axios had some bad news earlier today, reporting that the trade feud is “likely to last much longer than originally thought — extending well into the second half of next year and perhaps beyond, experts say.” According to Axios, the main reason for the protracted conflict is that neither side is prepared to appear politically weak at home, and both are ready to absorb economic pain.

With few probable winners, the biggest losers would be farmers, users of steel, and consumers in the US, manufacturers of all types will see business leave to neighbors like Vietnam and Malaysia in China, while dampening economic growth in both nations and around the globe.

However, as the general manager of the Bank of International Settlements, Agustin Carstens warned, the greater risk is not how many points of GDP the rising tariffs will subtract from the US and China, but the growing danger to globalization itself, and on Saturday, Karstens delivered a scathing critique of rising protectionism, a not-so-subtle rebuke to Trump’s use of tariffs and trade talks to wring concessions from China, Mexico and many other countries.

Reversing globalization “could increase prices, raise unemployment and crimp growth,” Carstens, the former head of Mexico’s central bank, told fellow central bankers at the Jackson Hole annual economic symposium. Additionally, higher tariffs could (actually, just say would) drive up U.S. inflation and force the Fed to raise rates, driving up the dollar and hurting both U.S. exporters and emerging market economies in the process, Carstens said.

Protectionism also threatens “to unsettle financial markets and put a drag on firms’ capital spending, as investors take fright and financial conditions tighten,” he said.

“These real and financial risks could amplify each other, creating a perfect storm and exacting an even higher price”, the rotund central banker warned.

Bank for International Settlements General Manager Agustin Carstens

Alongside Carstens’ speech, the BIS released a research paper titled “Global market structures and the high price of protectionism” which that estimated that revoking NAFTA would mean a loss to GDP of $37 billion in Canada, $22 billion in Mexico,

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