What Is the True Unemployment Rate in the US? – Global Research


06-09-19 01:20:00,


A reader of this blog recently asked an important question: what do I think is the actual unemployment rate in the US today, not the media’s 3.8% that is almost always quoted. Here’s my reply as to why I calculate the real, actual unemployment at minimum to be 10%-12%.

“The real unemployment rate is probably somewhere between 10%-12%. Here’s why: the 3.8% is the U-3 rate, per the labor dept. That’s only for full time employed. What the labor dept. calls the U-6 includes what it calls discouraged workers (those who haven’t looked for work in the past 4 weeks. Then there’s what’s called the ‘missing labor force’–ie. those who haven’t looked in the past year. They’re not calculated in the 3.8% U-3 unemployment rate number. Why? Because you have to be ‘out of work and actively looking for work’ to be counted. The U-6 also includes what the labor dept. calls involuntary part time. But it should include the voluntary part time as well, but doesn’t (See, they’re not actively looking for work even if unemployed). But the involuntary part time is itself under-estimated. It counts only those involuntarily part time unemployed whose part time job is their primary job. It doesn’t count those who have second and third involuntary part time jobs. The labor dept. also misses the 1-2 million workers who went on social security disability (SSI) because it provides better pay, for longer, than does unemployment insurance. That number rose dramatically after 2009 and hasn’t come down much (although the government and courts are going after them). The way the government calculates unemployment is by means of 60,000 monthly household surveys but that survey also misses a lot of workers who are undocumented and others working in the underground economy in the inner cities (about 10-12% of the economy according to most economists and therefore potentially 10-12% of the reported labor force in size as well. The labor dept. just makes assumptions about that number (conservatively, I may add). But it has not real idea of how many undocumented or underground economy workers are actually employed since these workers do not participate in the labor dept. phone surveys, and who can blame them. The SSI, undocumented, underground, etc. are what I call the ‘hidden unemployed’.

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German Unemployment Explodes Most Since Financial Crisis, Sending Bund Yields Near Record Lows


29-05-19 01:35:00,

With China failing to spark a global reflationary wave, prompting fears that Beijing’s record credit injection to start 2019 was for nothing and a repeat of the Shanghai Accord won’t take place, coupled with collapsing global trade, which we noted earlier this month…

… on Wednesday Germany reported that its economy appears to have finally hit major pothole as German unemployment unexpectedly surged for the first time in almost two years as the economic slowdown finally started to take a toll on the labor market, according to Bloomberg. Specifically, in May the number of people out of work climbed by 60,000 compared with economists’ forecasts for a decline of 8,000, while the jobless rate also increased to 5% from a record-low 4.9%.

According to Germany’s Federal Labor Agency about two-thirds of the increase was due to reclassification of some people in the statistics, however it also blamed a slowdown in Europe’s largest economy.

“We are seeing the first signs of a weakening economy on unemployment,” it said on Wednesday. It added that demand for new employees is still at a high level, but is softening.

This provided further impetus to buy German bunds, pushing the yield on the benchmark paper further below zero, to a near-record -0.167%.

Until recently, continued strength in Germany’s labor market helped boost consumer spending and support the economy. However, a turnaround in fortunes could be very damaging for Europe’s largest economy, given ongoing weakness in manufacturing and the auto industry, as well as trade tensions that threaten to hit exports. Business confidence plunged this month to the weakest in more than four years.

Naturally, should German growth suddenly hit a brick wall it would have dramatic consequences for the entire Eurozone.

As Bloomberg notes, “a turnaround in fortunes could be very damaging, given ongoing weakness in manufacturing and the auto industry, as well as trade tensions that threaten to hit exports.”

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Europe Unemployment at 8.1% – The Economic Death Spiral of the EU | Armstrong Economics


06-11-18 11:02:00,

The latest data from Euro Stat for September 2018 demonstrates the complete failure of the ECB and its Quantitative Easing. The Euro area (EA19) seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate came in at 8.1% in September 2018, which was down slightly from the year/year perspective of about 8.9%. This above all proves that the entire theory of the Quantity of Money is bogus. It also demonstrates that the Austerity Policy of Europe has caused unbelievable social damage resulting in what is being called the Lost Generation with unemployment among the youth reach 60% in Southern Europe.

Without a COMPLETE rejection of Austerity and a COMPLETE overhaul of the European Union structure, there is absolutely NO HOPE what so ever of Europe coming out of the death spiral. This will only get worse as politicians, with ZERO experience in trading markets, will debate and refuse to accept responsibility for their actions. Then you opened the doors to refugees when unemployment is at a serious high? And you wonder why there will be civil unrest and backlash against migrants?

As Einstein pointed out, you cannot possibly solve our problems with the very same thinking process that was used to create them.

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